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UDC (338:519.23):553.3/.4.072
PROBAVILISTIC APPROACH TO ASSASSMENT OF AVAILABILITY OF MINERAL DEPOSITS
M. Yu. Kharitonova, N. A. Matsko
Probabilistic approach was used to develop the model appraising availability of mineral deposits considering the discovery to the development date period. The authors propose to consider this period as the integral index showing an impact of various qualitative and hardly formalizable factors, such as an investment climate, institutional conditions, level of competition etc. The modeling results are given. The period before development date was found to have an impact on the possibility to involve copper deposits in development in Russia, the U.S.A, and Canada. Dependence of a deposit availability change rate on the discovery to development date period was empirically stated for these countries. In Russia and the U.S.A. these dependences are negative, and in Canada the availability change rate barely depends on the discovery to development date period. The authors exemplify the above conclusions by availability tracks of several deposits in Russia. It was discovered that in 15–30 years availability of deposits will decrease at the present developed to reserve targets ratio.
Key words: mineral resources, availability of deposits, development possibilities, period before development date.
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