FORECASTING OF GOLD PRODUCTION IN RUSSIA

N. A. Matsko1, M. Yu. Kharitonova2

1Institute for Systems Analysis RAS, Moscow; 2Institute of Chemistry and Chemical Technology SB RAS, Krasnoyarsk

The paper provides results of the long-term forecast of gold production performance in Russia. Modelling applied logistic function. It tyed cumulative gold production with its recoverable reserves and production performance at the beginning of the evaluation period. The background data include on-balance gold reserves registered in the State Register of Mineral Reserves of the Russian Federation, as well as actual gold production before the evaluation period. The model was verified by correlation of estimated and actual data on gold production in Russia and the world, which has shown a high correlation ratio. According to the modelling results, the peak gold production in Russia may be achieved in 6 to 13 years, taken the same market conditions and nearly the same reserves. After that, gold production will begin to decrease. If large unlicensed fields in Siberia and the Far East are put into production, the gold production decrease in these regions will begin at least 15 years later.

Key words: scarcity of natural resources, gold mining, production performance, production peak, longterm forecast.

DOI 10.20403/2078-0575-2016-4-87-92