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LOGISTIC MODEL FOR EXPRESS EVALUATION OF REPLACEMENT RATES OF GOLD RESOURCE BASE IN RUSSIA

M. Yu. Kharitonova 1, N. A. Matsko 2

1 Institute of Chemistry and Chemical Technology FRC KRC SB RAS, Krasnoyarsk, Russia; 2 FRC “Computer Science and Control” Russian Academy of Sciences Institute for Systems Analysis of RAS, Moscow, Russia

The article suggests a model for express forecasting of the dynamics of extracted gold volumes and mining gain. The model makes it possible to determine the necessary rate of input of reserves for development, the timing of achieving maximum gold production, the level of replacement of reserves ensuring the growth of produced volumes at a given rate with the required supply of reserves and other parameters characterizing various scenarios for the development of the gold mining industry. It is established that the reserves that have been discovered so far will ensure the exploitation of the raw material base while maintaining the achieved annual growth rate (3% per year) for about 6 years. Further, if there is no significant increase in reserves, annual volumes will begin to decline. In order to maintain the achieved growth rates of gold production for 15 years and provision of reserves at a level of not less than 20 years, it is necessary that the compensation factor of accumulated production by discoverable reserves during 10 years exceeds 1.

Keywords: mineral resource base, gold production, rate of replacement, geological reserves, expressforecasting.

DOI 10.20403/2078-0575-2018-3-81-85