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EXPRESS FORECAST OF PERIOD OF THE RESERVOIR DEVELOPMENT STAGES

M. Yu. Kharitonovа 1, N. A. Matsko 2

1 Institute of Chemistry and Chemical Technology of SB RAS, Krasnoyarsk, Russia; 2 Institute of System Analysis of RAS, Moscow, Russia

For resources in the exploration stage, the modern “Classification of reserves” requires determining the economic efficiency of development prospects. Calculations of the development efficiency are based on the development time, which is difficult to determine without technological projects and schemes due to insufficient initial data. The identification of development stages in the preliminary economic assessment is carried out on the basis of expert appraisals without precise criteria, by analogy with the fields under development. The article establishes empirical dependencies and shows the possibility of their use for express forecast of the period for finishing work on a field (deposit), duration of the main development period, duration of the increasing production stage. Dependencies allow solving the problem of constructing a production curve in conditions of limited geological data. The express method can be used at the macro level to develop strategies for the development of oil and gas regions and at the micro level in the economic assessment of the prospects for the development of objects.

Keywords: oil fields, development stages, recoverable reserves, logistic dependence.

DOI 10.20403/2078-0575-2020-4-82-85